Skrell Repopulation Lore Issue

[Saudus]

Ok, let me preface this by stating that I have only used the Skrell wiki page. Maybe there is other canon lore out there that fixes this.

The following wiki lines are of particular note:

The genophage remains problematic, but the population of the Skrell is managing to slowly rise.

Over 60 billion Skrell exist in the galaxy

... only about a third (33%) of Skrell are able to have children. These Skrell can have 1-3 children in their lifetime ...

The population of the Skrell had fallen to 62 billion ... (at 2192 i.e. ca Glorsh-Omega ending)

 

Ok, first of, the Skrell population is "now" lower than at Glorsh crash. That isn't exactly "managing to slowly rise". This is probably explained by that it continued to decline a while until it started to increase again. Now comes my issue.

For a population to sustain itself on average every individual needs to create another individual. Another way to put it is that every pair of male-female needs to create two. Or just that every female needs to create two if the ratio of males to females is 1:1.

Now, with the Skrell only 1/3 can have children. I assume this is true to both male and female Skrell. This means that if every female able to reproduce is reproducing they will need to produce 6 individuals to sustain numbers. That is apparently impossible as they are capped at 1-3.

Now, maybe female/male ratio amongst Skrell aren't 1:1, maybe there are more females than males. And let us assume that all females who can reproduce do so and all can produce 3 individuals, what ratio of male to female is then needed?

1 (representing 100%) = 1/3 (non-sterile population) * 3 (maximum offspring per female) * X (factor that represents female/male ratio where 0 is all males, 1 all females and 0.5 a 1:1 ratio). Lets solve for X

1 = 1 / 3 * 3 * X ===> X = 1

What does that mean? It means that to sustain the population, all fertile females need to produce 3 individuals and the population needs to be 100% female. 3 children per person is apparently the max, with the range being 1-3. Since we don't know the distribution between females being able to produce 1, 2 or 3 eggs lets error on the side of caution and say an average is 2.5. Now lets try and factor in other things as well. Such as number of people dying before having kids and number of people who can but chose not to have kids.

 

Of those born in 1971, 18 per cent were childless in 2016, when they turned 45.

(recent UK numbers on women who haven't had children)

The proportion of childlessness among women aged 40-44 was 10% in 1976, reached a high of 20% in 2005, then declined to 15% in 2014.

(wikipedia on US number of women without kids)

It varies quite a bit between western nations but the UK is apparently one of the higher European nations regarding this. Now Skrell society isn't human society. And post genophage etc I can only assume people very actively want and try to have kids for various reasons. So I am going to drop the Skrell number to 2% (off those who are even fertile).

On top of that, there needs to be a certain modifier for mortality pre-childbearing. I'll say 0.1% to make it very low but still hopefully making sense with highly developed nation etc.

Now regarding female/male ratio. Some cursory reading on the matter tells me that the 1:1 ratio is quite common, but it can vary a great deal. Now, there is a lack information regarding this on Skrell as well as possible societal and biological factors that could help me draw a conclusion (no shit, only crazy nerds like me who even notice let cares about this). So I am going to take the highest number of female/male ratio that I'm comfortable making, 2:1. As in 2 females to 1 male.

Ok, now to make a slightly more complicated equation than the basic one above where I will solve for Y which is the percentage of the new generation compared to the old.

Y = 1 * female/male ratio * fertile females * percentage who have kids * percentage who survives * average number of viable eggs

Y = 1 * (2/3) * (1/3) * 0.98 * 0.999 * 2.5

Y = 0,5439

So the kids produced by a generation are only 54.39% of the numbers of the generation having them. With, lets be honest, quite generous numbers by me.

At this point I want to point out other reproduction methods such as cloning, artificial reproduction etc etc as well as putting it in concrete numbers with the Skrell population and an estimate of how many die each year etc etc. But I've already made a huge wall of text that I'll be lucky if even the loredevs have the energy to read. If you did actually read and relatively enjoyed it I am hugely impressed by you (if you're ever in Stockholm I will literally buy you a beer) and here's a youtube channel that I've fallen in love with that you might too.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHsRtomD4twRf5WVHHk-cMw

 

TLDR;

The Skrell population cannot sustain itself based on the numbers provided on the wiki.

[Guest Marlon Phoenix]

How many Skrell would you like to see alive in 2459?

[Snakebittenn]

Actually, Skrell using cloning en masse would be pretty interesting.

[Guest Menown]

Actually, Skrell using cloning en masse would be pretty interesting.

 

The nonborn from Europa use this concept. When a colony is wiped out, they send out a cloned force for laborers, and what-not to raise numbers and prevent total collapse.

[Saudus]

How many Skrell would you like to see alive in 2459?

 

Well it depends on which is the "correct" lore. The number of Skrell or the methods of reproduction. I'd prefer to see the Skrell numbers the same but en mass cloning repopulation or more effective un-genophaging being lore and the reason why they've managed to get the current number.

[Guest Marlon Phoenix]

Cloning does not produce additional, fully functional individuals: it replacea the dead. The skrell clone for tup commandos, who cannot reproduce.

Just throw a number at me with your justification, and round up and add like a billion or to a nice even number, to handwave their rigorous advances in fertility treatments and long lifespans.

[Saudus]

Just throw a number at me with your justification, and round up and add like a billion or to a nice even number, to handwave their rigorous advances in fertility treatments and long lifespans.

 

Ok, LETS DO THIIIIIS.

I'll use the percentage from my initial post (54.39%) which assumes that:

the gender ratio in Skrell is 2:1 female:male

1/3 of females can be made fertile

the average number of viable eggs per fertile female is 2.5

damn near all fertile female skrell reproduce to the max of their capacity

Ok, now lets talk Skrell deathrate. From the wiki.

A healthy Skrell can naturally live up to 200 years, but current medical technology allows them to increase their lifespan to an impressive 300 to 500 years.

So I'll work with the assumption that on average Skrell die at age 400 (which includes deaths that are accidental/crime related/war related/etc.

So I'll assume that 1/400th of the population dies each year.

Now 54.39% of that population drop will be counteracted by the birth of new Skrell, i.e. yearly the Skrell population decrease by:

( 1/400) * ( (1-0.5439)/1 ) = 0.4561 / 400 = 0,00114025 (= 0.11%)

I'll go with this as my start number and date.

The population of the Skrell had fallen to 62 billion

(at 2192 i.e. ca Glorsh-Omega ending)

The year is "now" 2460, 2460-2192 = 268 years

This is where it gets tiring, because now we have a mathematical series yada yada to calculate the 2460 population... I don't feel like that, so I'll do it basic as fuck.

2460 pop =62 - (0.0011*268*0.8*62) = 62 - 14.62 = 47.38, which we round up to 48 billion.

[Guest Marlon Phoenix]

OK, changes reflected on the wiki. There are 48 billion skrell and half of those concentrated in the core systems.